Insights into COVID-19’s Impact

The Labour Force Survey (LFS), conducted by Statistics Canada, is the source of monthly employment estimates for Canadian industries. The monthly LFS sample size is approximately 56,000 households, covering 100,000 individuals.

Tourism HR Canada receives customized LFS tables that follow the Tourism Satellite Account’s definition of tourism. This allows Tourism HR Canada to track employment and unemployment in the tourism sector and compare it with the overall economy.

This customized LFS data, publicly available LFS data, and other data sources on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and mobility were used to develop the following month-by-month charts that track the impact of COVID-19 on Canada’s tourism sector. In addition to this ongoing tracking, we summarize the key points each month:

You can receive monthly updates by subscribing to our bi-weekly newsletter, Tourism HR Insider.

For information on global tourism, visit the United Nations World Tourism Organization’s Global Tourism Dashboard.

For information on demand for tourism from Canada’s major markets and the current Canadian sentiment to welcoming visitors from abroad, check out Destination Canada’s COVID-19 Research.

Note: Tourism HR Canada’s customized labour force survey data is seasonally unadjusted. Therefore, comparisons to the overall employment and unemployment rates also utilize unadjusted data. For that reason, total employment and unemployment numbers may differ from those reported elsewhere.

Tourism Employment

Chart 1 tracks the total number of individuals employed in Canada’s tourism sector for each month of 2020 and compares it to monthly employment in 2019. Users can select data for Canada or each province at the right-hand side of the chart. Additional graphs can be selected using the arrow at the bottom of the chart window. Graphs two and three show employment levels relative to other provinces. Graph four shows the month-over-month change in employment (orange bars) and the year-to-date change in employment compared to December 2019 (blue bars). Graph five breaks out the month-over-month change in employment by employment type (full-time or part-time).

Monthly Insight: Since its low point in April, tourism employment has grown by over half a million jobs. However, employment remains 363,900 jobs short of February employment levels and—more importantly—when compared to July 2019, employment in the tourism sector was only 75% of what it was the year prior.

Chart 1: Tourism Employment by Province

Chart 2 displays the same employment information but for each of the five industry groups that make up the tourism sector. Additional graphs can be selected using the arrow at the bottom of the chart. Graph two shows the amount of monthly employment in each industry group relative to each other. Graph three shows the month-over-month change in employment (orange bars) and the year-to-date change in employment compared to December 2019 (blue bars). Graph four breaks out the month-over-month change in employment by employment type (full-time or part-time).

Monthly Insight: In July, employment increased in four of the five industry groups. Employment decreased by 10,100 jobs in the transportation industry, but increased significantly in food and beverage services (110,200) and recreation and entertainment (74,600). Modest gains in employment occurred in accommodation (10,300) and travel services (5,000). The industries with employment losses or modest gains have a higher reliance on travellers, whereas food services and recreation get a greater share of their business from local residents.

Chart 2: Tourism Employment by Industry Group

Please note that data for each industry group by province is available, but there is high variability in monthly industry group data at the provincial level. To request data, please email research@tourismhr.ca.

Unemployment Rate

Chart 3 displays the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate for tourism and the overall labour force, comparing the unemployment rate for 2020 to the unemployment rate for 2019, nationally and by province. Monthly unemployment rates for each industry group are also available. Under normal circumstances, tourism’s unemployment rate trends downward as the summer season approaches.

Note that Canadians are only counted as unemployed if they are actively seeking another job. While the number of Canadians employed in tourism has fallen 880,000 since February, the number considered “unemployed” only increased by 342,800. This shows that many have decided that actively seeking work is untenable, or they are waiting for their employer to reopen so they can be rehired. Because of the suddenness of job losses and uniqueness of the current labour market, the unemployment rate is only telling part of the story. As restrictions lift, businesses open, and emergency benefits are scaled back, the unemployment rate will become a better indicator of the health of the labour market.

Monthly Insight: The tourism unemployment rate continued to drop in July, reaching 18.7%, down from a high of 29.7% in May. It remains well above the overall seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate of 11.2%

Chart 3: Tourism Unemployment Rate

Entry and Exit from the Tourism Labour Force

Chart 4 looks at the total number of individuals entering or leaving the tourism labour force on a month-over-month basis (graph 1) and on a year-to-date basis with December 2019 as the anchor point. The tourism labour force is the total number of individuals who are employed in tourism plus the total number of unemployed individuals seeking work whose last job was in the tourism sector. The overall labour force number is important because it shows the total number of experienced tourism workers who are available to work in the sector. Decreases in the labour force can be due to either employment dropping (and those unemployed workers choosing not to seek work) or unemployed tourism workers finding jobs in other industries.

Monthly Insight: On a month-over-month basis, the tourism labour force grew in July as new jobs were added. This followed two months of increases where new jobs were added and more workers who lost jobs in March and April began seeking work and were therefore counted as unemployed. However, as shown in chart two, with the exception of the recreation and entertainment industry, the tourism labour force remains smaller than it was in December 2019.

Chart 4: Workforce Entry and Exit

Total Actual Hours Worked

Chart 5 displays the total number of actual hours worked in each sector for Canada and each province. Unfortunately, this data is not available for the tourism sector as a whole, however the Accommodation & Food Services and Information, Cultural & Recreation sectors can act as a good proxy for tourism. The total number of hours worked helps indicate the amount of demand occurring in sectors where employees may have been kept on staff, thanks to the Canadian Emergency Wage Subsidy, but are not being utilized to their full capacity.

Users can select any of the sixteen sectors individually or select multiple sectors using the CTRL or Command button. Data is available for Canada and each province. Data can be toggled between a line graph and a bar chart. The line graph shows data for the year 2019 to allow year-over-year comparisons of monthly hours worked by sector.

Monthly Insight: In some sectors, actual hours worked have returned to pre-COVID levels. But despite increases since April, most sectors are still reporting that the total number of hours worked by all employees remains below the levels seen in February or below levels seen in July 2019. Accommodation and food services employees worked 23.6 million hours in July 2020, compared to 36.7 million hours in July 2019.

Chart 5: Actual Hours Worked by Sector (monthly)

Gross Domestic Product

Chart 6 shows total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from all sources for fourteen tourism-related industries. On average, the GDP from tourism spending is around 2.0% of Canada’s total GDP. However, that number is only from tourism activities (both domestic and international). It does not account for money spent by locals at tourism businesses like restaurants or recreation facilities. The following chart shows total GDP from all sources. It compares the monthly GDP for 2019 and 2020. Please note that there is a longer lag time to receive GDP data than labour force data.

The default setting shows total GDP across the entire Canadian economy. Users can select each of the tourism-related industries individually or select multiple industries using the CTRL or Command function to see the total GDP of those industries.

Monthly Insight: Gross Domestic Product continued to rebound in a number of tourism-related sectors in May. GDP across the entire economy remained down (-14.7%) from February after a 4.5% increase between April and May. Overall GDP across tourism-related industries increased 7.1% from April to May but overall remained down (-54.9%) from February. The GDP of air transportation suffered the most, down 96.2% from February. Urban transit systems were down 84.8% from February. Food services and drinking places saw a large monthly jump in GDP, increasing 35.1%, but was still less than half of what it was in February.

Chart 6: Gross Domestic Product (monthly)

Employment by Age Group and Gender

Chart 7 displays monthly employment for the entire labour force by age group. Over 30% of the jobs in tourism are filled by people aged 15 to 24. This age group has seen the largest employment losses due to COVID-19. This chart shows the number of individuals employed in the entire economy by age group by month, comparing data for 2019 and 2020, and can be cross-tabulated by gender. It is separated by region. Use the toggle buttons at the bottom to view the charts for a specific province.

Monthly Insight: Between February and June, disproportionate job losses were suffered by young people (aged 15-24), in particular young women. As of July, youth employment was 1.3% higher than it was in February, but below the level of employment seen in July 2019. Employment levels for all other age groups remained lower than in February and in fact decreased for those 35-54 and 65+ between June and July. Because employment usually drops for older workers between June and July due to seasonal decreases in educational services and the transportation/warehousing sector, these decreases cannot be attributed to COVID-19. Similarly, employment in July always spikes upward for youth due to summer employment. The longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on employment by age group will begin to be seen in September’s data, when the summer boost to youth employment ends and educational workers return.

Chart 7: Employment by Age and Gender (monthly)

Employment by Occupational and Industry Earnings

Chart 8 shows the monthly change in employment levels broken down by average annual earnings for occupations across all industries (two-digit NOC code) and for each tourism related industry (4-digit NAICS code). The occupations and industries are grouped by the average earnings employees in those occupations and industries make. Earnings are grouped by those earning less than $30,000; $30,000 to $50,000; $50,000 to $80,000; and over $80,000.

The data shows that initial employment losses (March and April) were heavily concentrated in occupations where workers earn less than $50,000 a year on average. Within tourism industries, early employment losses were most pronounced within industries with average annual earnings below $30,000.

Monthly Insight: While initial employment losses were mostly in lower-earning occupations, those occupations have seen a greater recovery as well. In July, the number of individuals employed in occupations earning less than $30K were 376,700 fewer than in February, followed by occupations in the $50K to $80K range (-283,300), and $30K to $50K (-249,900). The number of employed individuals working in occupations with average annual earnings above $80K was 62,300 higher than in February.

Chart 8: Occupation Employment Change Compared to February 2020

Economic Indicators

Underlying the employment trends are a number of economic indicators. In Chart 9, graphs one to four show data drawn from Statistics Canada’s data on travel between Canada and other countries. Graph one shows the number of non-resident travellers entering Canada (from the U.S. and from all other countries), which includes all travellers crossing the border who are travelling to Canada for a period of less than 12 months. Graph two shows the number of tourists entering Canada. International tourists are a subset of travellers, whose trip includes one or more overnight stays. Graphs three and four compare the number of travellers and tourists from the U.S. and from other countries. Graph five shows the percentage of travellers to Canada who are tourists.

Graphs six and seven show data drawn from the monthly operating statistics of major Canadian airlines. The graphs show airlines’ total operating revenues and the total number of passengers per month, both of which have dropped precipitously. Graph eight shows the number of aircraft movements at airports with NAV Canada towers. Aircraft movement data is more current than data for operating revenue and monthly passenger movements. It shows a recovery of domestic aircraft movement over the summer, but international and transborder movements have shown no recovery since April.

Graph nine draws on data from STR to show the average weekly occupancy rate at hotels across Canada, which has steadily climbed since early April to reach 41.8% by mid August. The final graph shows the total number of sales at food service and drinking establishments in Canada by month and region.

Chart 9: Economic Indicators

Mobility

Chart 10 displays data on mobility, provided by Google. These weekly updates show how often (relative to a baseline of zero) individuals in Canada are going to parks or retail and recreation environments. Note that this data does not indicate what people are doing at parks.

Monthly Insight: Visits to parks continued to climb in July and August, albeit more slowly than in May and June. Visits to retail and recreation facilities have remained flat since late June.

Chart 10: Mobility Changes (Parks and Retail & Recreation)

canada_govThis project is funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Initiatives Program

 

The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada.

Source: Adapted from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.