Working with the Conference Board of Canada, Tourism HR Canada has updated its employment projections in tourism, and extended the envelope of projection out to 2027. These projections are available at the national and provincial levels, and incorporate both occupations (through the National Occupational Classification system) and industries (the North American Industry Classification System).
This report focuses primarily on job demand stemming from the business perspective (demand side), but also includes some discussion of labour challenges on the supply side, namely in the form of job vacancies.
Among the key findings:
- Tourism employment through 2023 is expected to be just over 2 million, or 97.1% of its pre-pandemic (2019) levels. It is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
- Projections of employment recovery to pre-pandemic levels vary across the industry groups:
- Recreation and entertainment passed 2019 employment levels in 2022.
- Food and beverage services and travel services are expected to pass 2019 employment levels in 2024.
- Accommodations and transportation are expected to pass 2019 employment levels in 2026.
- There are projected regional differences as well, with the Atlantic provinces, the Prairies, and British Columbia expected to surpass 2019 employment levels in 2024, while employment in Quebec, Ontario, and the Territories is expected to recover in 2025.
Tourism HR Canada is preparing updated summaries for the different industry groups, which will be available shortly. They will provide a high-level overview of some of the anticipated pressure-points that businesses are likely to face in the next few years; they will not be cast-iron guarantees, of course, but they will be useful starting points for operators and sector associations in planning for the future.
The industry factsheets presenting data to 2025 remain available, below:
